Payrolls Below Expectations

The U.S. economy generated 155,000 jobs in November, below consensus forecasts for 198,000. In addition, the strong October figure was revised down to 237,000 from 250,000. The unemployment rate was steady at 3.7%. Jobs growth was best in healthcare, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. The monthly gain was below the three-month average of 174,000 new jobs per month as well as the 12-month trend of 203,000. Wage growth came in at an annualized 3.1%, equal to the prior month but at the upper end of the past several months as a shortage of workers in some areas has resulted in upward wage pressure. Still, there remains slack in the labor force. The labor participation rate was 62.9%,...  below the 10-year average of 65%. Despite the weaker-than-expected jobs report, the underlying metrics and trends continue to signal a strong economic environment, and we expect the Fed to raise interest rates in mid-December. However, the pace of rate hikes is expected to slow in 2019 as the Fed takes stock of likely slower economic growth.    more

Argus President John Eade discusses the market pullback and oil prices

Stocks continue down following a week of wild swings

Major indices continue lower at mid-day Friday following yesterday's large intra-day swing. In economic news, non-farm jobs increased by 155,000 in November, while the unemployment rates remained unchanged at 3.7%. Jobs added fell short of the 189,000 expectation, and well below the monthly average of 209,000 of the previous 12 months. The average workweek decreased by 0.1 hours, while hourly earnings increased by 6 cents. The jobs report could effect the Federal Reserve's decision making on the path of interest rates. ...  more

Hoping and Positioning for a December Rally

With a forceful bounce to open the final trading week in November, Mr. Market wiped away some, though not all, of the gloom. After Monday’s rally, which was partly about Brexit and partly a feeling-out recovery, the S&P 500 was down about 2% for the eleventh month. Hamstrung by follow-on November weakness and the 6.9% decline in October, the S&P 500 is again back to break-even for the year. ...more