4.2% GDP Growth Highest for a While

Since the current economic expansion began in the fourth quarter of 2009, the economy has grown for 35 quarters in a row. In the post-World War II era, the U.S. has experienced 10 periods of economic growth; these expansions have averaged 20 quarters, or five years. The six expansions since 1960 have averaged 27 months. Based on the historical record, the current expansion could certainly continue for a few more quarters. In 2018-2019, we expect continued growth, as we think the positives in the economy will outweigh the negatives. Drilling down to the next few quarters, we expect continued strong demand from the Consumer sector, which is benefiting from robust employment. We also look for growth...  in Capital Investment, as the sector benefits from higher oil prices and low interest rates. On the negative side, exports may continue to cool off due to trade and tariff tensions. At our forecast full-year growth rate of 3.3%, we anticipate one more Fed rate hike this year. On an annual basis, we look for growth to increase in 2018 from last year's 2.5%. We look for a modest slowdown in 2019, to 2.4%, and a further slowdown into the election year of 2020.    more

Argus President John Eade discusses the markets response to midterm elections

Indecision remains high following selloff

Major indices are mixed at mid-day Tuesday following yesterday's selloff. While the market opened higher, it came under pressure directly following the open, but has since started to recover, placing the indices above yesterday's close. This indecision is likely sparked by trade rumors coming from the White House. ...  more

Trying to Right the Ship: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

September typically ends summer on a down-beat; it is among the weakest months of the year as measured on the S&P 500 since 1980. And then stocks usually rally in October, kicking off the best quarter of the four for stocks. ...more