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In addition to raising the Federal Funds rate, the Federal Reserve is actively reducing the unprecedented expansion of its balance sheet, which began in October 2008. After a very slow start in 4Q17 and 1Q18, the FOMC quickened the pace of security sales and/or runoffs in 2Q18 and 3Q18. But in 4Q18, it slowed the pace of sales to the low end of its scheduled $40-$50 billion/month, possibly because of the rise in bond yields through early November, as well as the turbulence in the U.S. equity market. The Fed's quantitative tightening program is expected to last several years. In September 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York projected that "normalization" would continue to a "2020-2023 target of $2.5-$3.0 trillion"- which would only cut the 2008-2014 Fed credit expansion in half. The partial balance sheet reduction will take longer at the recent pace of sales. At $40 billion/month, it would take until April 2022 to reduce the Fed's assets to $2.5 trillion. ... of $2.5-$3.0 trillion"- which would only cut the 2008-2014 Fed credit expansion in half. The partial balance sheet reduction will take longer at the recent pace of sales. At $40 billion/month, it would take until April 2022 to reduce the Fed's assets to $2.5 trillion. more
In this series of podcasts, Argus President John Eade details 10 Argus Investment Themes for 2019. ... more
Argus in the News 1/18/2019
Stephen Biggar discusses Amex with Bloomberg Business News BNNBloomberg.com
Argus in the News 1/15/2019
Stephen Biggar on Citigroup earnings CNBC.com
Argus in the News 1/9/2019
Argus Chief Investment Strategist Peter Canelo discusses his 2019 outlook with Reuters’ Fred Katayama ThomsonReuters.com
Conference Call - Argus Investment Strategy: The Year Ahead 1/9/2019
Conference call slides
Argus in the News 1/3/2019
Argus Top 2019 Picks Featured in Forbes Forbes.com
Argus in the News 12/30/2018
Argus President John Eade talks about his top Transport picks on CNBC’s Power Lunch CNBC.com
Argus in the News 12/28/2018
Jim Kelleher Discusses Market Volatility Bloomberg.com
Argus in the News 12/27/2018
David Toung joins CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to discuss health care stocks CNBC.com
Argus Updates Sponsored Research Coverage 12/14/2018 Ashford, Inc. (NYSE: AINC)
Argus Initiates Sponsored Research Coverage 12/14/2018 Dogness Int’l (NGM: DOGZ)
Conference Call - Argus Analysts’ Top Picks for 2019 12/6/2018
Argus in the News 11/21/2018
Stephen Biggar discusses "How to Choose an ETF" with U.S. News & World Report USNews.com
Conference Call - Outlook for the Holiday Season 11/7/2018
Argus in the News 10/29/2018
John Eade discusses defense stocks TheStreet.com
Argus in the News 10/24/2018]
John Eade discusses Industrial earnings with Becky Quick of CNBC CNBC.com
John Staszak discusses McDonald’s (MCD) with Morning Trade Live TDAmeritradeNetwork.com
Argus in the News 10/15/2018
David Toung discusses Pharmaceutical Stocks with Morning Trade Live TDAmeritradeNetwork.com
Argus in the News 10/8/2018
Argus President John Eade discusses the outlook for the Transport sector CNBC.com
Conference Call - The Communication Services Sector 10/3/2018
Each year, we survey our analysts to find out their best ideas for the upcoming 12 months. more
Last year’s portfolio of 22 stocks outperformed the market over the survey period, with an average decline of 3.2% compared to the market’s drop of 3.9%. The survey featured winners from a wide variety of industries and included companies such as Praxair Inc., Lowes Cos., Kroger Co., ConocoPhillips, Humana Inc., Ecolab Inc., American Tower Corp., ServiceNow Inc., Visa Inc. and Eversource Energy. Our analysts have now each submitted ideas for 2019. The list is diversified, and includes large-cap and mid-cap ideas, growth stocks and value picks and, momentum and contrarian options. It is available under the Portfolio Strategy/Theme Portfolios tab on our website.
Last year’s portfolio of 22 stocks outperformed the market over the survey period, with an average decline of 3.2% compared to the market’s drop of 3.9%. The survey featured winners from a wide variety of industries and included companies such as Praxair Inc., Lowes Cos., Kroger Co., ConocoPhillips, Humana Inc., Ecolab Inc., American Tower Corp., ServiceNow Inc., Visa Inc. and Eversource Energy. Our analysts have now each submitted ideas for 2019. The list is diversified, and includes large-cap and mid-cap ideas, growth stocks and value picks and, momentum and contrarian options.
It is available under the Portfolio Strategy/Theme Portfolios tab on our website.
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Major indices are down at mid-day Tuesday. A large part of the day's pessimism seems to be wrapped up in the IMF lowering its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, with U.S. stocks following similar drops in other major exchanges around the world. Domestic news isn't offering much hope either, with the two chambers of Congress refusing to vote on each-other's government funding bills, and the latest Home Sales data indicating a weakening housing market. ... more
At present, the S&P 500 is down 1.01%, the DJIA is down 0.79%, and the NASDAQ is down 1.19%.
Industries doing well today include Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers, Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure, and Multiline Retail. Industries showing weakness include Tobacco, Machinery, and Energy Equipment & Services. The VIX is up 0.89 to 18.69 after the previous close of 17.80. The most heavily traded options this morning are for the Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF (QQQ), with 15,701 June 21 180 calls on the board. The total put/call ratio as of 11:00 AM was 0.87 (593,091/679,112). The advancers/decliners ratio for NYSE stocks is 658/2,263 while the dvancers/decliners ratio for NASDAQ stocks is 910/2,073. less
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced late last month that its third estimate for the 3Q18 GDP growth rate was 3.4%. This was down slightly from the previous estimate as well as from the even-more-robust growth rate of 4.2% in 2Q18. Consumer and investors should remember those growth rates – and the heady stock market activity preceding them. Going forward, we think that growth will be more difficult, and market conditions more volatile. ...more