Raising GDP Forecast for 2Q18

Since the current economic expansion began in the fourth quarter of 2009, the economy has grown for 34 quarters in a row. In the post-World War II era, the U.S. has experienced 10 periods of economic growth; these expansions have averaged 20 quarters, or five years. Recently, expansions have been more durable. The six expansions since 1960 have averaged 27 months. Based on the historical record, the current expansion could certainly continue for a few more quarters. Expansions don't die of old age, but rather from problems that emerge. Looking into 2018-19, we are forecasting continued growth, as we think the positives in the economy outweigh the negatives. Drilling down to the second quarter...  and second half of 2018, we expect a pick-up in pent-up demand from the Consumer sector, which is benefiting from a robust employment environment. We also look for growth in capital investment and from the export sector. For these reasons, we are raising our 2Q18 GDP forecast from 3.0% to 3.4%. At our forecast 2.9% pace of growth for the full year, we anticipate two more Fed rate hikes this year. We look for a modest slowdown in 2019 to 2.3%.    more

Argus President John Eade discusses the potential impacts of the Trump Tariffs

Markets try to rebound after gap down

Stocks are relatively flat Friday morning, although some tech names are higher. Tweets and at TV interview where the president spoke about additional tariffs on China, criticized the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy, and accuse both the EU and China of currency manipulation turned stocks from green to red before the open this morning. The major indices recovered most of those losses, but aren't showing a lot of conviction after the early rally. ...  more