Bullish Outlook for Commodity Prices

Commodity prices have dropped in value since the start of the year as a brewing trade war raises the risk of a global economic slowdown. The commodities market bottomed in January 2016, when oil prices were below $30 per barrel and copper below $4,500 per metric ton, according to the World Bank. Since then, oil prices had climbed 135% and copper prices more than 50%. But the trends have reversed course in 2018, led by soybeans, copper and gold. We forecast stable-to-higher prices for commodities in 2018-2019 as the Brazilian economy recovers and China continues to grow, and trade talks turn more toward compromise. Last year, we upgraded our sector recommendation to the Basic Materials group...  to Over-Weight, based on expectations for further commodity price gains and attractive valuations. The current market weighting of the sector is 3.0%, and we think investors should consider exposure of 4%-5% in diversified portfolios. We recommend well-managed, financially strong industry leaders that are able to take market share during challenging periods for the Chemical, Metals, Ag and Paper industries.    more

Argus President John Eade discusses the upcoming Sector Classification

Market continues to slip

Stocks continue down at mid-day Tuesday. Investors are cautious as many major US companies post disappointing quarterly results. Lackluster earnings and geopolitical concerns spawn heavy selling, pulling major indices down below key levels of support. ...  more

Rescuing the Market from its Selloff

Stocks suffered a 5%-plus selloff in the 10/8/18 trading week, and if past is precedent the selling is not over. But the market is more likely to retest recent lows than to plumb new depths, again using the past as a market barometer. ...more