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Global Rates Trends Mixed

Runaway inflation (a 17% rate) has sent Turkish 10-year bond rates soaring toward 18%. A relatively high inflation rate of 5% is also propping up 10-year bond rates in India at 6.2%. But interest rates around the rest of the world are near all-time lows, as they are in the U.S. and the U.K., or are even outright negative, as in Japan, France, Germany, and Switzerland. In the U.S., we note that the Federal Reserve has taken numerous extraordinary steps to keep financial markets functioning, and we don't look for the Fed to raise short-term rates until later next year. At the same time, and for a couple of reasons, we do not expect the Fed to follow its European peers and establish negative interest rates in the U.S. First, the jury is out as to whether negative rates are actually helping economies recover. Second, money-market funds in the U.S. play an important role in the financial markets, and negative government bond yields would "break the buck." Our advice to fixed-income investors seeking yield is to consider ETFs specializing in inflation-indexed debt, securitized debt, or floating bonds. For specific suggestions, see our Fixed Income Strategy report. ...  don't look for the Fed to raise short-term rates until later next year. At the same time, and for a couple of reasons, we do not expect the Fed to follow its European peers and establish negative interest rates in the U.S. First, the jury is out as to whether negative rates are actually helping economies recover. Second, money-market funds in the U.S. play an important role in the financial markets, and negative government bond yields would "break the buck." Our advice to fixed-income investors seeking yield is to consider ETFs specializing in inflation-indexed debt, securitized debt, or floating bonds. For specific suggestions, see our Fixed Income Strategy report.   more

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